Risk-adjusted models for adverse obstetric outcomes and variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals




Objective


Regulatory bodies and insurers evaluate hospital quality using obstetrical outcomes, however meaningful comparisons should take preexisting patient characteristics into account. Furthermore, if risk-adjusted outcomes are consistent within a hospital, fewer measures and resources would be needed to assess obstetrical quality. Our objective was to establish risk-adjusted models for 5 obstetric outcomes and assess hospital performance across these outcomes.


Study Design


We studied a cohort of 115,502 women and their neonates born in 25 hospitals in the United States from March 2008 through February 2011. Hospitals were ranked according to their unadjusted and risk-adjusted frequency of venous thromboembolism, postpartum hemorrhage, peripartum infection, severe perineal laceration, and a composite neonatal adverse outcome. Correlations between hospital risk-adjusted outcome frequencies were assessed.


Results


Venous thromboembolism occurred too infrequently (0.03%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02–0.04%) for meaningful assessment. Other outcomes occurred frequently enough for assessment (postpartum hemorrhage, 2.29%; 95% CI, 2.20–2.38, peripartum infection, 5.06%; 95% CI, 4.93–5.19, severe perineal laceration at spontaneous vaginal delivery, 2.16%; 95% CI, 2.06–2.27, neonatal composite, 2.73%; 95% CI, 2.63–2.84). Although there was high concordance between unadjusted and adjusted hospital rankings, several individual hospitals had an adjusted rank that was substantially different (as much as 12 rank tiers) than their unadjusted rank. None of the correlations between hospital-adjusted outcome frequencies was significant. For example, the hospital with the lowest adjusted frequency of peripartum infection had the highest adjusted frequency of severe perineal laceration.


Conclusion


Evaluations based on a single risk-adjusted outcome cannot be generalized to overall hospital obstetric performance.


Admission for delivery constitutes the most common indication for hospitalization in the United States. The sheer volume of deliveries, as well as the fact that each admission has the potential to affect the short- and long-term health of at least 2 individuals (a mother and her newborn), underscores the importance of achieving high-quality delivery care.


Correspondingly, measuring these outcomes should be an important component of quality improvement. An ideal quality measure for inpatient obstetrics would encompass 5 major characteristics: (1) association with meaningful maternal and neonatal outcomes, (2) relation to outcomes that are influenced by physician/health system behaviors, (3) affordability for application on a large-scale basis, (4) acceptability to practicing obstetricians as a meaningful marker of quality, and (5) reliability/reproducibility. Yet, because outcomes may be dependent upon preexisting patient characteristics, simply measuring health outcomes may not provide insight into quality of care or allow valid comparisons among institutions. To overcome this limitation, risk adjustment has been widely employed in clinical disciplines such as cardiothoracic surgery to assess outcomes for procedures such as lung resection or coronary artery bypass grafting. Such risk adjustment, however, has been used inconsistently in evaluation of obstetric outcomes and there is no consensus on which outcomes or which risk adjustment factors should be used.


Moreover, as quality measurement increases, so does the need to do such measurement parsimoniously. Many consumers and providers tend to think of hospitals as having consistent quality within a given discipline, in which case measures should be highly correlated and fewer aspects of care would need to be assessed. Conversely, if measures are not correlated, multiple measures would need to be collected to enable an accurate assessment of performance.


Our objective was thus to establish risk adjustment models for use in obstetrics that adjust for preexisting patient characteristics and, using these models, assess the consistency of hospital performance across obstetrical outcomes that fit the criteria listed above for quality outcome measures.


Materials and Methods


Study design


From 2008-2011, we assembled a cohort of women and their neonates born in any of the 25 hospitals of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network. The Assessment of Perinatal Excellence study was designed to develop quality measures for intrapartum obstetrical care. This study was approved by the institutional review board at each participating institution under a waiver of informed consent.


Patients eligible for data collection were those who delivered within the institution, were at least 23 weeks of gestation, and had a live fetus on admission. Data were collected on eligible patients if they delivered during the 24-hour period of selected days during a 3-year period (March 2008 – February 2011). Days were chosen via computer-generated random selection. To avoid overrepresentation of patients from larger hospitals, we selected one third of days at hospitals with annual delivery volumes from 2000-7000 and up to one sixth of days at hospitals with annual deliveries >7000. The randomization scheme was stratified by weekdays, weekends, and holidays and generated separately for each hospital. On selected days, the labor and delivery logbook at each participating center was screened to identify all eligible women. The medical records of all eligible women and their newborns were abstracted by trained and certified research personnel at the hospital and entered into a World Wide Web–based data entry system. Data recorded included demographic characteristics, details of the medical and obstetrical history, information about intrapartum and postpartum events, and patients’ race and ethnicity as reported in the chart. Maternal data were collected until discharge and neonatal data were collected up until discharge or until 120 days of age, whichever came first.


Feasibility and quality of data collection were ensured by several mechanisms. First, prior to selecting final data fields and forms, a 2-week pilot study took place to evaluate the data collection process, quality of the data, and frequency of missing data. Based on the information gathered during this pilot phase, final data fields were selected and forms revised. All data were subjected to ongoing data edits to ensure accuracy.


Primary outcomes


An initial determination of the primary obstetric outcomes of interest was made via expert consensus, obtained during meetings of members of the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Steering Committee and an external advisory committee convened specifically for this project (Acknowledgments). Based on input from these committees, 5 primary outcomes were chosen because they represented different domains of obstetric complications, were clinically meaningful, could be affected by differences in clinical care, were ascertainable from medical records, and potentially occurred with sufficient frequency to allow valid institutional comparisons: venous thromboembolism, postpartum hemorrhage, peripartum infection, severe perineal laceration, and a composite neonatal adverse outcome. Venous thromboembolism was defined as occurrence of either a deep venous thrombosis diagnosed by duplex Doppler or a pulmonary embolism diagnosed by computed tomography or ventilation-perfusion lung scan. Postpartum hemorrhage was defined as occurrence of any of the following: an estimated blood loss ≥1500 mL at delivery or the immediate postpartum period, a blood transfusion, or a hysterectomy for hemorrhage, placenta accreta, or atony. Peripartum infection was defined as occurrence of any of the following: chorioamnionitis, endometritis, wound cellulitis requiring antibiotics, wound reopened for fluid collection or infection, or wound dehiscence during the delivery hospitalization. Severe perineal laceration was defined as the occurrence of a third- or fourth-degree perineal laceration, was restricted to women with vaginal singleton deliveries with no shoulder dystocia or placenta previa, and was stratified by spontaneous, vacuum, or forceps delivery. The composite neonatal adverse outcome was defined as occurrence of any of the following restricted to term (≥37 weeks of gestation), nonanomalous singleton infants: neonatal stay longer than maternal stay by ≥3 calendar days, 5-minute Apgar score <4, skeletal fracture other than of the clavicle, facial nerve palsy, brachial plexus palsy, subgaleal hemorrhage, ventilator support, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, stillbirth after hospital admission, or neonatal death. We chose to include only term infants because morbidity prior to term is strongly related to prematurity-related complications and not necessarily differences in health care and thus inclusion is not as good a candidate for an obstetric quality measure. Additional details regarding the definitions of these outcomes and relevant denominators can be found in the Appendix ; Supplementary Table 1 .


Statistical analyses


At each institution, the unadjusted frequencies of adverse outcomes, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated and were compared using the χ 2 test. The analysis was then directed at assessing which patient characteristics were significantly associated with the chosen outcomes. We chose not to examine hospital characteristics such as volume or teaching status in the model as they are not inherently related to the patient and should not be included in a risk-adjustment model. Patient characteristics eligible for multivariable models were selected a priori based on whether they could plausibly be associated with the outcome. While inclusion of the same risk factors in all models would be convenient, requiring this condition could lead to loss of precision of the risk-adjustment models that were developed. As our goal was to have the best possible risk-adjustment models, we included as potential factors for each model the most relevant and plausible risk factors. Prior to multivariable analysis, the possibility of colinearity among patient characteristics was assessed. Continuous variables were first assessed to determine whether their association with each outcome was linear, by assessing the linearity of the log (odds), using a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing technique. When there was evidence of nonlinearity, we included both linear and quadratic terms. Model selection was based on creating derivation and validation datasets using a k-fold cross-validation approach in which the cohort was randomly divided into 10 equal parts and logistic regression models, using backward selection, were generated utilizing every possible combination of 9 of the 10 sets. Variables with P < .05 were retained, and each of the 10 subsamples was used for validation. The C statistic was computed to assess each model’s predictive ability (discrimination). Only those variables that were present in the logistic regression model with the highest C statistic and also were present in at least 8 of the 10 k-fold logistic regression models were chosen for the final multivariable model that included the entire dataset. Because assessment of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic ( P value) is not recommended for datasets as large as ours, model fit was assessed from graphical displays of the observed and expected number of patients within each partition of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.


The final multivariable models were then used to estimate hospitals’ expected outcome frequencies. To estimate a hospital’s expected outcome frequency, which is the hospital’s outcome frequency that would be expected given the characteristics of their patients, the predicted outcome probability was estimated for each patient and then all patient probabilities within the same hospital were averaged (see eStatistics text). These expected outcome frequencies were used to calculate an observed (unadjusted) to expected ratio (OER). Bootstrapping was performed on 1000 samples with replacement to estimate 99% CI around the OER and identify the hospitals that were significantly different from an OER of 1.0. OERs can be interpreted as such: if the ratio is <1.0, the hospital has fewer adverse outcomes than expected; if the ratio = 1.0, the hospital has as many adverse outcomes as expected; and if the ratio is >1.0, the hospital has more adverse outcomes than expected. Because we were estimating individual hospital frequencies, the primary models did not adjust for hospital; however, regressions accounting for patient clustering within a hospital (ie, adding hospital as a fixed effect to the logistic model or as a random effect to a hierarchical model) were performed to evaluate whether either adjustment altered the strength and precision of the estimated odds ratios (ORs) for the patient characteristics.


For each outcome, hospitals were ranked according to their unadjusted frequency and reranked according to their adjusted frequency, and Kendall coefficient of concordance was used to assess the degree to which these rankings were similar. Correlations of hospital-adjusted frequencies for each pair of outcomes were tested using Spearman rank correlation.


SAS software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) was used for the analyses. All tests were 2-tailed. P < .01 was used to define statistical significance and 99% CIs were estimated when directly testing a hypothesis, ie, correlations between outcomes, concordance between unadjusted and adjusted ranks, and to identify hospital outliers. P < .05 and 95% CIs were estimated for model building and more descriptive analyses.




Results


During the study period, data were collected on 115,502 women and their neonates at 25 hospitals. The majority of hospitals were teaching hospitals (22/25, 88%). Most also had round-the-clock availability of a maternal-fetal medicine specialist (21/25, 84%), in-house obstetric attending (21/25, 84%), neonatologist (20/25, 80%), and dedicated obstetric anesthesiologist (22/25, 88%). The median number of deliveries at the study hospitals was 4252. Over 40% of women were nulliparous, 2.4% had a multiple gestation, and 27.4% of multiparous women had previously undergone cesarean delivery ( Table 1 ; Supplementary Table 1 for definitions); 94.1% of newborns were vertex at delivery, 13.1% were preterm (<37 weeks’ gestation at delivery), and 10.6% weighed <2500 g at birth.



Table 1

Maternal (n = 115,502) and neonatal (n = 118,422) characteristics of study population































































































































































































































Characteristics No. (%)
MATERNAL CHARACTERISTICS
Age, y
<20 10,187 (8.8)
20-24.9 24,299 (21.0)
25-29.9 31,101 (26.9)
30-34.9 30,570 (26.5)
≥35 19,345 (16.8)
Race/ethnicity a
Non-Hispanic white 52,040 (45.1)
Non-Hispanic black 23,878 (20.7)
Non-Hispanic Asian 5999 (5.2)
Hispanic 27,291 (23.6)
Other 5083 (4.4)
Not documented 1211 (1.1)
Body mass index at delivery, b kg/m 2
<25 14,242 (12.6)
25-29.9 41,268 (36.5)
30-34.9 32,088 (28.4)
35-39.9 15,088 (13.3)
≥40 10,481 (9.3)
Cigarette use during pregnancy 11,370 (9.9)
Cocaine or methamphetamine use during pregnancy 830 (0.7)
Insurance status
Uninsured/self-pay 11,989 (10.5)
Government-assisted 45,125 (39.4)
Private 57,462 (50.2)
Prenatal care b 107,510 (97.9)
Obstetric history
Nulliparous 46,773 (40.5)
Prior vaginal delivery only 49,865 (43.2)
Prior cesarean only 8872 (7.7)
Prior cesarean and vaginal 9963 (8.6)
Any hypertension 13,272 (11.5)
Diabetes mellitus
None 106,706 (92.4)
Gestational 6999 (6.1)
Pregestational 1734 (1.5)
Anticoagulant use during pregnancy 920 (0.8)
Multiple gestation 2815 (2.4)
Polyhydramnios 940 (0.8)
Oligohydramnios 4700 (4.1)
Placenta previa 467 (0.4)
Placenta accreta 158 (0.1)
Placental abruption 930 (0.8)
PROM/PPROM b 6004 (5.3)
GBS status
Negative 68,918 (59.7)
Positive 24,390 (21.1)
Unknown 22,194 (19.2)
NEONATAL CHARACTERISTICS
Presentation at delivery
Vertex 111,174 (94.1)
Breech 6010 (5.1)
Nonbreech malpresentation 931 (0.8)
Gestational age at delivery, wk
23 0 -27 6 1256 (1.1)
28 0 -33 6 4282 (3.6)
34 0 -36 6 10,024 (8.5)
37 0 -37 6 10,914 (9.2)
38 0 -38 6 20,723 (17.5)
39 0 -39 6 37,695 (31.8)
40 0 -40 6 23,876 (20.2)
41 0 -41 6 8998 (7.6)
≥42 0 654 (0.6)
Birthweight, g
<2500 12,498 (10.6)
2500-3999 96,708 (81.7)
≥4000 9186 (7.8)
Size for gestational age
Small 11,530 (9.7)
Appropriate 97,774 (82.6)
Large 9088 (7.7)

GBS , group B streptococcus; PPROM , preterm premature rupture of membranes; PROM , premature rupture of membranes.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013.

a Race/ethnicity was reported in chart


b n = 113,167 with body mass index data, n = 109,773 with prenatal care visit data, n = 113,446 with PROM/PPROM data.



Given the infrequency of venous thromboembolism it was excluded from further analysis. The frequencies of the other chosen outcomes were more common and differed significantly across hospitals ( Table 2 ) ( P < .001 for all).



Table 2

Observed hospital frequencies of obstetric outcomes




































































Outcome No. of outcomes Denominator size for each outcome Frequency percent (95% CI) Lowest frequency percent Median frequency percent Highest frequency percent
Venous thromboembolism a 31 115,499 0.03 (0.02–0.04) 0.00 0.02 0.07
Postpartum hemorrhage b 2425 105,987 2.29 (2.20–2.38) 0.82 2.09 4.86
Peripartum infection b 5581 110,205 5.06 (4.93–5.19) 2.19 5.34 9.69
Severe perineal laceration at SVD c 1475 68,144 2.16 (2.06–2.27) 1.01 2.00 4.89
Severe perineal laceration at FVD c 523 1898 27.56 (25.54–29.57) 8.00 32.56 48.15
Severe perineal laceration at VVD c 510 3515 14.51 (13.34–15.67) 3.73 13.99 48.15
Composite neonatal adverse outcome d 2440 89,279 2.73 (2.63–2.84) 0.96 2.61 5.91

CI , confidence interval; FVD , forceps-assisted vaginal delivery; SVD , spontaneous vaginal delivery; VVD , vacuum-assisted vaginal delivery.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013.

a Among all women with complete outcome data


b Among all women with complete outcome and covariable data


c Among women with singleton delivery and no shoulder dystocia or placenta previa and complete outcome and covariable data


d Among women with term, nonanomalous singleton infants and complete outcome and covariable data.



The variables retained in the final multivariable model for each outcome are listed in Table 3 ( Supplementary Table 2 for a full list of variables assessed; Supplementary Tables 3 8 for the parameter estimates, OR, and 95% CI). A core group of patient-specific factors (maternal age, body mass index, insurance status, gestational age or birthweight, obstetric history, diabetes mellitus, and smoking) was significantly associated with multiple outcomes. The C statistic for each model, which ranged from 0.68–0.79 with lower bounds of the 95% CIs all >0.50 ( Table 3 ), demonstrate that in all cases patient factors were at least somewhat, but not fully predictive of outcomes. Model calibration showed good model fit of the observed and expected number of patients within each partition of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with or without each outcome ( Supplementary Figures 1 6 ). Model fit was similar whether continuous variables were entered into the model as categorical variables based on clinically relevant cut-points, and confirmed as appropriate from the locally weighted scatterplot smoothing plots, or as linear (and quadratic when appropriate) terms; for ease of interpretation the models with categorical variables are presented in Supplementary Tables 3 8 . Overall, the OR and 95% CI associated with each patient characteristic were not substantially altered after accounting for patient clustering within a hospital in either logistic or hierarchical regression models ( Supplementary Tables 3 8 ).



Table 3

Final multivariable model for each obstetric outcome




































































































































































































Variable Postpartum hemorrhage a Peripartum infection a Severe perineal laceration at SVD b Severe perineal laceration at FVD b,c Severe perineal laceration at VVD b,c Composite neonatal adverse outcome d
Denominator size 105,987 110,205 68,144 1898 3515 89,279
Maternal characteristics
Age
Body mass index at delivery
Cigarette use during pregnancy
Cocaine or methamphetamine use during pregnancy
Insurance status
Prenatal care
Obstetric history
Any hypertension
Diabetes mellitus (gestational, pregestational)
Anticoagulant use during pregnancy
Multiple gestation
Placenta previa
Placenta accreta
Placental abruption
PROM/PPROM
GBS status
Neonatal characteristics
Gestational age at delivery
Birthweight
Size for gestational age
C statistic (95% CI) 0.74 (0.73–0.75) 0.75 (0.74–0.75) 0.79 (0.78–0.80) 0.68 (0.65–0.70) 0.69 (0.67–0.72) 0.68 (0.67–0.69)

Dots signify that variable is in final multivariable model.

CI , confidence interval; FVD , forceps-assisted vaginal delivery; GBS , group B streptococcus; PPROM , preterm premature rupture of membranes; PROM , premature rupture of membranes; SVD , spontaneous vaginal delivery; VVD , vacuum-assisted vaginal delivery.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013.

a Among all women with complete outcome and covariable data


b Among women with singleton delivery and no shoulder dystocia or placenta previa and complete outcome and covariable data


c Final model based on k-fold analysis for outcome of severe perineal laceration at SVD


d Among women with term, nonanomalous singleton infants and complete outcome and covariable data.



The graphs of the hospital ranks based on unadjusted frequencies compared with the ranks based on adjusted frequencies are presented in Figure 1 . Statistically there was a relatively high concordance between the unadjusted and adjusted ranks (Kendell coefficient of concordance 0.86-0.98) ( Supplementary Table 9 ). However, there were hospitals where their rank based on their adjusted frequency differed substantially (as much as 12 rank tiers) from their rank based on their unadjusted frequency.




Figure 1


Association between hospital ranks based on observed (unadjusted) outcome frequencies and hospital ranks based on adjusted outcome frequencies

A , Postpartum hemorrhage. B , Peripartum infection. Severe perineal laceration at: C , spontaneous vaginal delivery (SVD); D , forceps-assisted vaginal delivery (FVD); and E , vacuum-assisted vaginal delivery (VVD). F , Composite neonatal adverse outcome.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013 .


None of the comparisons of hospital risk-adjusted frequencies between outcomes was significantly correlated: hemorrhage vs neonatal (rho = –0.05, P = .83), hemorrhage vs infection (rho = 0.26, P = .21), hemorrhage vs laceration (rho = –0.29, P = .16), infection vs laceration (rho = –0.23, P = .26), infection vs neonatal (rho = 0.02, P = .93), and laceration vs neonatal (rho = –0.13, P = .52).


For each outcome, several hospitals were noted to have OERs that were significantly different from 1, a fact which indicates that they were achieving outcome frequencies that were significantly different (better or worse) than expected based on their population of patients ( Figure 2 ). When hospitals were ranked according to their OERs and characterized by outlier status for each outcome ( Figure 2 , color green indicating upper bound of the OER 99% CI <1.0; color red indicating lower bound of the OER 99% CI >1.0), there was no evidence that particular hospitals consistently performed either better or worse than expected across the outcomes.




Figure 2


Hospital rankings by observed (unadjusted) to expected ratio

Green indicates upper bound of OER 99% CI <1.0; red indicates lower bound of OER 99% CI >1.0; white indicates OER 99% CI includes 1.0.

CI , confidence interval; OER , observed to expected ratio; SVD , spontaneous vaginal delivery.

a Among all women with complete outcome and covariable data; b Among women with singleton delivery and no shoulder dystocia or placenta previa and complete outcome and covariable data; c Among women with term, nonanomalous singleton infants and complete outcome and covariable data.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013 .




Results


During the study period, data were collected on 115,502 women and their neonates at 25 hospitals. The majority of hospitals were teaching hospitals (22/25, 88%). Most also had round-the-clock availability of a maternal-fetal medicine specialist (21/25, 84%), in-house obstetric attending (21/25, 84%), neonatologist (20/25, 80%), and dedicated obstetric anesthesiologist (22/25, 88%). The median number of deliveries at the study hospitals was 4252. Over 40% of women were nulliparous, 2.4% had a multiple gestation, and 27.4% of multiparous women had previously undergone cesarean delivery ( Table 1 ; Supplementary Table 1 for definitions); 94.1% of newborns were vertex at delivery, 13.1% were preterm (<37 weeks’ gestation at delivery), and 10.6% weighed <2500 g at birth.



Table 1

Maternal (n = 115,502) and neonatal (n = 118,422) characteristics of study population































































































































































































































Characteristics No. (%)
MATERNAL CHARACTERISTICS
Age, y
<20 10,187 (8.8)
20-24.9 24,299 (21.0)
25-29.9 31,101 (26.9)
30-34.9 30,570 (26.5)
≥35 19,345 (16.8)
Race/ethnicity a
Non-Hispanic white 52,040 (45.1)
Non-Hispanic black 23,878 (20.7)
Non-Hispanic Asian 5999 (5.2)
Hispanic 27,291 (23.6)
Other 5083 (4.4)
Not documented 1211 (1.1)
Body mass index at delivery, b kg/m 2
<25 14,242 (12.6)
25-29.9 41,268 (36.5)
30-34.9 32,088 (28.4)
35-39.9 15,088 (13.3)
≥40 10,481 (9.3)
Cigarette use during pregnancy 11,370 (9.9)
Cocaine or methamphetamine use during pregnancy 830 (0.7)
Insurance status
Uninsured/self-pay 11,989 (10.5)
Government-assisted 45,125 (39.4)
Private 57,462 (50.2)
Prenatal care b 107,510 (97.9)
Obstetric history
Nulliparous 46,773 (40.5)
Prior vaginal delivery only 49,865 (43.2)
Prior cesarean only 8872 (7.7)
Prior cesarean and vaginal 9963 (8.6)
Any hypertension 13,272 (11.5)
Diabetes mellitus
None 106,706 (92.4)
Gestational 6999 (6.1)
Pregestational 1734 (1.5)
Anticoagulant use during pregnancy 920 (0.8)
Multiple gestation 2815 (2.4)
Polyhydramnios 940 (0.8)
Oligohydramnios 4700 (4.1)
Placenta previa 467 (0.4)
Placenta accreta 158 (0.1)
Placental abruption 930 (0.8)
PROM/PPROM b 6004 (5.3)
GBS status
Negative 68,918 (59.7)
Positive 24,390 (21.1)
Unknown 22,194 (19.2)
NEONATAL CHARACTERISTICS
Presentation at delivery
Vertex 111,174 (94.1)
Breech 6010 (5.1)
Nonbreech malpresentation 931 (0.8)
Gestational age at delivery, wk
23 0 -27 6 1256 (1.1)
28 0 -33 6 4282 (3.6)
34 0 -36 6 10,024 (8.5)
37 0 -37 6 10,914 (9.2)
38 0 -38 6 20,723 (17.5)
39 0 -39 6 37,695 (31.8)
40 0 -40 6 23,876 (20.2)
41 0 -41 6 8998 (7.6)
≥42 0 654 (0.6)
Birthweight, g
<2500 12,498 (10.6)
2500-3999 96,708 (81.7)
≥4000 9186 (7.8)
Size for gestational age
Small 11,530 (9.7)
Appropriate 97,774 (82.6)
Large 9088 (7.7)

GBS , group B streptococcus; PPROM , preterm premature rupture of membranes; PROM , premature rupture of membranes.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013.

a Race/ethnicity was reported in chart


b n = 113,167 with body mass index data, n = 109,773 with prenatal care visit data, n = 113,446 with PROM/PPROM data.



Given the infrequency of venous thromboembolism it was excluded from further analysis. The frequencies of the other chosen outcomes were more common and differed significantly across hospitals ( Table 2 ) ( P < .001 for all).



Table 2

Observed hospital frequencies of obstetric outcomes




































































Outcome No. of outcomes Denominator size for each outcome Frequency percent (95% CI) Lowest frequency percent Median frequency percent Highest frequency percent
Venous thromboembolism a 31 115,499 0.03 (0.02–0.04) 0.00 0.02 0.07
Postpartum hemorrhage b 2425 105,987 2.29 (2.20–2.38) 0.82 2.09 4.86
Peripartum infection b 5581 110,205 5.06 (4.93–5.19) 2.19 5.34 9.69
Severe perineal laceration at SVD c 1475 68,144 2.16 (2.06–2.27) 1.01 2.00 4.89
Severe perineal laceration at FVD c 523 1898 27.56 (25.54–29.57) 8.00 32.56 48.15
Severe perineal laceration at VVD c 510 3515 14.51 (13.34–15.67) 3.73 13.99 48.15
Composite neonatal adverse outcome d 2440 89,279 2.73 (2.63–2.84) 0.96 2.61 5.91

CI , confidence interval; FVD , forceps-assisted vaginal delivery; SVD , spontaneous vaginal delivery; VVD , vacuum-assisted vaginal delivery.

Bailit. Variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2013.

a Among all women with complete outcome data


b Among all women with complete outcome and covariable data


c Among women with singleton delivery and no shoulder dystocia or placenta previa and complete outcome and covariable data


d Among women with term, nonanomalous singleton infants and complete outcome and covariable data.



The variables retained in the final multivariable model for each outcome are listed in Table 3 ( Supplementary Table 2 for a full list of variables assessed; Supplementary Tables 3 8 for the parameter estimates, OR, and 95% CI). A core group of patient-specific factors (maternal age, body mass index, insurance status, gestational age or birthweight, obstetric history, diabetes mellitus, and smoking) was significantly associated with multiple outcomes. The C statistic for each model, which ranged from 0.68–0.79 with lower bounds of the 95% CIs all >0.50 ( Table 3 ), demonstrate that in all cases patient factors were at least somewhat, but not fully predictive of outcomes. Model calibration showed good model fit of the observed and expected number of patients within each partition of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with or without each outcome ( Supplementary Figures 1 6 ). Model fit was similar whether continuous variables were entered into the model as categorical variables based on clinically relevant cut-points, and confirmed as appropriate from the locally weighted scatterplot smoothing plots, or as linear (and quadratic when appropriate) terms; for ease of interpretation the models with categorical variables are presented in Supplementary Tables 3 8 . Overall, the OR and 95% CI associated with each patient characteristic were not substantially altered after accounting for patient clustering within a hospital in either logistic or hierarchical regression models ( Supplementary Tables 3 8 ).


May 13, 2017 | Posted by in GYNECOLOGY | Comments Off on Risk-adjusted models for adverse obstetric outcomes and variation in risk-adjusted outcomes across hospitals

Full access? Get Clinical Tree

Get Clinical Tree app for offline access